Understanding the strange world of conspiracy theories

An image of a woman holding a finger over her mouth indicating to be quiet.

Image: Kristina Flour/Unsplash

Image: Kristina Flour/Unsplash

At some point, someone has probably told you global warming is a big lie orchestrated by scientists, or it’s just part of a natural cycle.


Key Points

  • Conspiracy theorists want to feel in control and important.
  • The advent of social media has changed the way conspiracy theories manifest. Conspiracism fuelled by the digital age can be toxic to democracy.
  • High-quality listening can be effective in getting through to conspiracy theorists.

You’ve also probably been told that the COVID-19 vaccines are carrying government nanobots to turn you into a military drone.

You may have even read about QAnon: the theory that the world is run by satanic, cannibalistic, paedophilic overlords orchestrating a global child sex-trafficking ring, and that Donald Trump was recruited to bring them to justice.

Despite the fact that all these ideas have been categorically disproven (for example, the International Panel on Climate Change's recent report, fact-checks for vaccine conspiracies, and expert articles on QAnon), they all have amassed significant followings.

Research by the Australia Institute in 2019 found 22 per cent of Australians either were unsure, didn’t know, or did not think climate change was occurring. One in five Australians are hesitant about receiving their COVID-19 vaccine. In 2020, the Pew Research Centre found 20 per cent of Americans believed QAnon was “a somewhat, or very, good thing”.

The logical evidence is well and truly stacked against conspiracy theories, yet they continue to attract countless followers. The question for many people is: why?

At some point, someone has probably told you global warming is a big lie orchestrated by scientists, or it’s just part of a natural cycle.


Key Points

  • Conspiracy theorists want to feel in control and important.
  • The advent of social media has changed the way conspiracy theories manifest. Conspiracism fuelled by the digital age can be toxic to democracy.
  • High-quality listening can be effective in getting through to conspiracy theorists.

You’ve also probably been told that the COVID-19 vaccines are carrying government nanobots to turn you into a military drone.

You may have even read about QAnon: the theory that the world is run by satanic, cannibalistic, paedophilic overlords orchestrating a global child sex-trafficking ring, and that Donald Trump was recruited to bring them to justice.

Despite the fact that all these ideas have been categorically disproven (for example, the International Panel on Climate Change's recent report, fact-checks for vaccine conspiracies, and expert articles on QAnon), they all have amassed significant followings.

Research by the Australia Institute in 2019 found 22 per cent of Australians either were unsure, didn’t know, or did not think climate change was occurring. One in five Australians are hesitant about receiving their COVID-19 vaccine. In 2020, the Pew Research Centre found 20 per cent of Americans believed QAnon was “a somewhat, or very, good thing”.

The logical evidence is well and truly stacked against conspiracy theories, yet they continue to attract countless followers. The question for many people is: why?

Protestors in the street of london hold a large cardboard Q to indicate their support for QAnon, a conspiracy group.

Anti-lockdown and anti-mask demonstrations by Stand Up X in London. Image: Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona/Unsplash

Anti-lockdown and anti-mask demonstrations by Stand Up X in London. Image: Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona/Unsplash

What makes a conspiracy theorist?

So how do people become involved in – and deeply committed to – these kinds of ideas?

According to UQ experts, a number of factors influence someone’s susceptibility to conspiracy theories, but it largely comes from a desire to feel in control and important – particularly if someone hasn’t felt this in their everyday life.

“We know that people who believe in conspiracy beliefs tend to feel that things are out of control,” said Professor Jolanda Jetten, a researcher from UQ’s School of Psychology.

“Think about COVID-19, or big disasters like September 11 – those things that are weird and hard to get your head around.

“Our research focuses less on what type of person is likely to believe in conspiracy theories, and more on what kind of environment triggers people to embrace those beliefs.

“We’re not trying to change someone’s personality, but look at what we can do during those times when people feel out of control.”

An image of Jolanda Jetten

Professor Jetten said environments in which people feel unimportant could also draw them to conspiracy communities.

“We know that people who are more isolated are more likely to gravitate towards conspiracy theories,” she said.  

“These people who feel somewhat marginalised – that they’ve never been taken seriously – are suddenly not alone anymore and they become part of something.”

“It’s a very powerful dynamic, where you feel that – as a group – you’ve seen the light and everyone else is in the dark.”
Professor Jolanda Jetten

Professor Matthew Hornsey, from the UQ Business School, works closely with Professor Jetten to better understand conspiracy theories and how people become involved.

Beyond achieving that sense of belonging, he said it was also about the opportunity to build self-esteem. 

“Conspiracy theories offer a sense of specialness: they provide the idea that the whole world is asleep and the universe is whispering secret knowledge in your ear,” he said.

An image of Matthew Hornsey

“They make you feel smart and different – they makes you feel superior – and this happens among groups of people who traditionally haven’t been made to feel like that within society.

“I think that’s part of the attraction as well.”

Professor Jetten said this was a common theme celebrated in many movies and TV shows.

“This narrative is quite appealing in the West: think about a lot of the movies we watch. Something happens and there’s an official version, but there’s an individual who knows something isn’t right, but no one believes them,” she said.

“They follow their nose, investigate, and – in the end – they’re proven right, and everyone is so grateful they saved the world.

“For conspiracy theorists, there’s a mentality that ‘one day, they will understand – one day, I’ll be proven right’.”

While a popular fictional narrative, conspiracy theories about global cover-ups have been proven right before and often come from anxieties based on reality.

Events like the thalidomide scandal have fuelled distrust in ‘big pharma’. And, while the beliefs of QAnon might seem unfathomable, people have genuine fears about child sex-trafficking that have been confirmed by high-profile arrests for child sexual exploitation.

“If you look at the cigarettes lobby, for example, for a decade or two, they were able to suppress all scientific knowledge that cigarettes were bad for us,” Professor Jetten said.

“In some countries and governments, there are powerful players in the background preventing us from seeing the truth.

“That’s the issue – sometimes there have been conspiracies or cover-ups.”

Leading public figures like Hillary Clinton (pictured) have been targets of conspiracy theories like QAnon. Image: Canva

An image of Hilary Clinton.

What is the psychology behind conspiracy theories?

Professor Hornsey said one of the psychological principles underlying conspiracy theories is motivated reasoning.

“We know that conspiracy theorists do research, and they are doing more research than the rest of us,” he said.

“But they’re doing research in a way that is extremely biased.

“In a normal reasoning process, you behave like a scientist: you weigh up the evidence, you assess it, and then you reach a conclusion.

“However, there is significant evidence that, for most people, it goes the other way around: you have a conclusion – based on ideology, politics, or even just a gut feeling – and then you selectively expose yourself to and appraise evidence that reinforces the conclusion you want to reach.

“You’re prosecuting a certain outcome.”

A blurred foreground of heads behind which a clear poster reading 'the earth is flat - video proof' written on it with a big QR code.

Protestors in Lietsal, Switzerland, marching against COVID-19 restrictions. Image: Kajetan Sumila/Unsplash

Protestors in Lietsal, Switzerland, marching against COVID-19 restrictions. Image: Kajetan Sumila/Unsplash

Professor Jetten said the attraction of conspiracy theories also lies with the need to have big causes for big events.

“When something big happens, it’s hard for people to understand that it could just be a fluke,” she said.

“This whole idea that the COVID-19 pandemic was caused by this one animal at the wet markets – well, that’s just unsatisfying.
Professor Jolanda Jetten

“A classic example is the assassination of US President John F Kennedy. Killing the President would change global politics, so [people believe] it can’t have just been a lone shooter – the FBI and CIA must have been involved, and there must have been a whole system behind it.

“It can be hard to believe it was just a wrong-place, wrong-time situation – one person with something going on in his head. That doesn’t seem logical.”

US President John F. Kennedy and his wife, Jackie Kennedy, ride in a topless black car as crowds gather on the sidelines. A police escort on a motorcycle is beside them.

US President John F. Kennedy was assassinated on 22 November 1963 as he rode in a motorcade in Dallas, Texas. Image: Bettmann/Getty Images

US President John F. Kennedy was assassinated on 22 November 1963 as he rode in a motorcade in Dallas, Texas. Image: Bettmann/Getty Images

Professor Jetten said people also often believe different ‘big explanations’ for events that are inherently conflictual.

“What I find fascinating is that when you’re fully a conspiracy theorist, so many beliefs are inconsistent with each other,” she said.

“One classic example is that the more you believe Princess Diana was killed by MI6, the more likely you are to believe that she escaped and lives on an island somewhere far away – clearly that’s not right.

“It’s the same with COVID-19 conspiracies. Some people believe governments have introduced the virus so they can justify martial law, but also that all of the information we get about how dangerous COVID-19 is is exaggerated. Well, which one is it?

“There is no logical sort of narrative there if you were to put it all together.”

Professor Hornsey said conspiracy theories could also be attractive for the entertainment value of ‘digging out the truth’.

“The fun thing about QAnon is the problem solving,” Professor Hornsey said.

“They’re leaving clues everywhere – if you can identify those clues and join the dots, it’s like a collective communal treasure hunt for the truth.

“That must actually be quite fun. I think there’s an entertainment aspect to some conspiracy theories as well,” he said.

Are conspiracy theories changing, and are they dangerous?

Head of UQ's School of Political Science and International Studies Professor Katharine Gelber said while conspiracy theories have been around for a long time, the advent of social media has changed how they manifest.

An image of Katharine Gelber.

“Classic conspiracy theories were strung together with pieces of information in a way that didn't make sense and wasn't plausible but, nevertheless, was still evidence-based,” Professor Gelber said.

“New conspiracism is fuelled by the digital age – today, many conspiracy theories do not rely at all on evidence, but simply on the fact you heard it on social media.”

Professor Gelber said this new conspiracism is toxic to democracy.

“In the US, the majority of Republican voters still believe the 2020 election was stolen, in spite of all the evidence that it was one of the most secure elections in American history,” she said.

“The ‘fake news’ phenomenon is another example of undermining legacy media, based on nothing other than an ideological belief.

“Core democratic institutions like electoral systems, media, universities and the courts are being undermined by this new conspiracism, which doesn’t rely on evidence and is fuelled by the online sphere.”
Professor Katharine Gelber

Professor Gelber said the malicious use of disinformation – the deliberate spreading of false information to damage things – was particularly concerning.

“We know that some disinformation is driven by the addictive nature of social media and that it operates by trying to get people glued to their screens and using clicks,” she said.

“But a lot of what's happening in the disinformation space is artificial intelligence- and bot-driven,” she said.

“We know there are countries in the world that have factories of people whose entire job is to set up bots to spread disinformation, with the ultimate purpose of undermining democratic institutions.”

Far-right conspiracy theorists QAnon and "Stop The Steal" followers outside the Minnesota State Capitol building. Image: Chad Davis/Flickr

Protestors of all age and gender are at the Capitol in Washington D.C. in the United States. Many are holding American Flags or signs saying 'Stop the Steal' and 'Truth will Reign' and 'Trump 2020'.

Can you change a conspiracy theorist’s mind?

According to UQ experts, the short answer is: you can’t.

But Professor Hornsey encourages people not to give up on a family member or friend who has become involved in conspiracy theories.

“You can’t just argue someone out of their conspiracy theory: the nature of a conspiracy theory is that it’s not disprovable,” he said.

“If you come up with evidence, a conspiracy theorist will just dispute the evidence as part of the conspiracy, or they'll find new evidence and theories to replace the discredited ones.”

A Stand Up X rally in London protesting COVID-19 restrictions such as masks and lockdowns. Image: Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona/Unsplash

Professor Hornsey said there’s evidence that high-quality listening can be effective in getting through to conspiracy theorists.

“If you let someone just talk and get across their theory, eventually, they’ll start to provide counterpoints to their own arguments,” Professor Hornsey said.

“They’ll say, ‘I know this sounds crazy, it might be a bit extreme’.

“Or you can find points of contact: the notion that big pharma can’t be trusted is perfectly sensible, or that there are paedophile rings out there.

“But the long game is trying to reduce that sense of powerlessness, lack of control and alienation that becomes a breeding ground for conspiracy theorists.

“That’s a long game society needs to play.”


Know the facts behind more of society's big questions

An older man addresses a crowd with his back turned to the camera. He has a 'drug free' sticker on his back with a crossed out circle of a vaccine. A man holds a megaphone next to him.

A Stand Up X rally in London protesting COVID-19 restrictions such as masks and lockdowns. Image: Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona/Unsplash

A Stand Up X rally in London protesting COVID-19 restrictions such as masks and lockdowns. Image: Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona/Unsplash

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